Friday’s announcement that Iran had reopened the Strait of Hormuz sent equities surging and oil plunging, pushing the S&P 500 to a new all-time high of 7,126 and delivering one of the strongest weekly returns in recent memory across virtually every asset class. By Saturday morning, Iran had reversed course, re-closing the strait and firing on vessels attempting to transit, leaving markets to reckon with a rally built on a single day’s headlines. First-quarter earnings season opened on a constructive note, with major financial institutions reporting well ahead of reduced expectations, though Netflix fell nearly 10% on disappointing second-quarter guidance. Small-cap and value equities continued to lead on a year-to-date basis, while gold extended its position as the top-performing asset class at +12.5%. With a ceasefire set to expire within days and negotiations in Islamabad unresolved, the path ahead remains uncertain, and the durability of this week’s gains along with it.
Friday's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened defined the week of April 13–17, sending WTI crude oil down more than 11% to near $84 per barrel and driving the S&P 500 to an all-time high of 7,126. Markets priced in a meaningful reduction in energy-driven inflation risk, capping the index's third consecutive week of gains exceeding 3%. However, the optimism was short-lived: by Saturday morning, Iran had reversed course and re-closed the strait, citing the continued U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iranian gunboats opened fire on vessels attempting transit, and the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship over the weekend. As this publication goes to press, the ceasefire is days from expiring and negotiations in Islamabad remain unresolved. The week's strong performance reflects a market that responded to a single day's headlines; the durability of those gains will depend on whether a diplomatic agreement can be reached in the days ahead.
Below we examine the week's performance across fixed income, equities, and alternatives; summarize the most significant earnings announcements and the commentary behind them; and assess the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for energy markets and global supply chains.
The week of April 13–17 delivered broadly strong returns across most asset classes, driven primarily by Friday's Hormuz reopening announcement. The S&P 500 gained 4.6% on the week and now stands up 4.5% year-to-date, with small-cap and mid-cap equities among the standout performers. Fixed income recovered alongside equities, gold extended its year-to-date lead to +12.5%, and Bitcoin rebounded +4.7%. Readers should note that Iran re-closed the strait on Saturday April 18 and tensions have escalated further into Sunday, which may affect the opening of markets this week.
| Index | Last Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Fixed Income | ||
| Bloomberg US Treasury Bills 1–3 Month | +0.1% | +1.1% |
| Bloomberg US Government/Credit 1–3 Year | +0.3% | +0.7% |
| Bloomberg US Aggregate | +0.6% | +0.8% |
| Bloomberg Municipal 1–15 Year | +0.2% | +0.8% |
| Bloomberg Municipal Bond High Yield | +0.4% | +2.3% |
| Bloomberg US TIPS | +0.4% | +1.2% |
| Bloomberg Global Aggregate | +0.9% | +0.9% |
| Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield | +0.7% | +1.5% |
| ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Total Return | +0.7% | +0.9% |
| S&P/TSX North American Preferred Stock | +1.0% | +2.1% |
| U.S. Equities | ||
| S&P 500 Total Return | +4.5% | +4.5% |
| Russell 3000 Total Return | +4.6% | +4.8% |
| Russell 1000 Value Total Return | +2.4% | +8.5% |
| Russell 1000 Growth Total Return | +6.7% | +0.8% |
| Russell Midcap Total Return | +3.5% | +8.5% |
| Russell Midcap Value Total Return | +2.9% | +10.9% |
| Russell Midcap Growth Total Return | +5.7% | +0.7% |
| Russell 2000 Total Return | +5.6% | +12.3% |
| Russell 2000 Value Total Return | +3.6% | +14.3% |
| Russell 2000 Growth Total Return | +7.5% | +10.4% |
| S&P 1500 Real Estate (Sector) | +3.9% | +11.3% |
| International Equities | ||
| MSCI ACWI Net Total Return | +3.9% | +6.3% |
| MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return | +3.9% | +6.9% |
| MSCI EAFE Net Total Return | +2.2% | +8.4% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets Net Total Return | +3.2% | +14.2% |
| Alternatives & Other | ||
| SPDR Gold Shares | +2.0% | +12.5% |
| Bitcoin Price Return | +4.7% | −24.6% |
| Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish | −0.3% | +1.2% |
Source: Vistamark Investment Research; data through April 17, 2026 close. All returns are total return unless otherwise noted. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Fixed income delivered a broadly positive week, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate gaining 0.6% as the 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.24% by Friday's close, releasing some of the pressure that had built up in rates throughout the first quarter as energy-driven inflation fears kept yields elevated. Treasury Bills continue to provide consistent front-end yield support and remain among the better-performing fixed income categories on a year-to-date basis at +1.1%.
Long-duration Treasuries were the standout performer within fixed income, with the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Index gaining 0.7% for the week as the rally in longer rates reinforced the move down in yields. Year-to-date, the long end is now up +0.9%, a meaningful improvement from the negative territory of recent weeks. TIPS also posted a solid week at +0.4%, as inflation expectations remained anchored despite the week's sharp drop in oil prices. Global bonds outperformed the broader domestic aggregate, gaining 0.9% on the week compared to 0.6% for the Bloomberg US Aggregate, aided by the modest weakening of the U.S. dollar.
High yield corporate bonds gained 0.7% on the week as credit spreads tightened alongside the broader equity rally, bringing the year-to-date return to +1.5%. Municipal High Yield added 0.4% on the week and is now up +2.3% year-to-date. Preferred stocks were the week's fixed income outperformer at +1.0%, reflecting sensitivity to the equity risk-on tone, and now stand at +2.1% year-to-date. The Federal Reserve's latest communications reinforced the consensus view that the policy rate path will remain data-dependent throughout 2026, with regional Fed presidents emphasizing the need for sustained labor market durability and anchored inflation expectations before any further easing is considered.
U.S. equity markets rallied sharply during the week of April 13–17, with Friday's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened acting as the primary catalyst. The prospect of easing energy costs and reduced inflation risk drove broad-based gains, producing some of the strongest weekly index returns in recent memory. The S&P 500 gained 4.5% on a total return basis and closed at an all-time high. It is worth noting, however, that Iran reversed the reopening announcement the following morning, re-closing the strait and firing on vessels attempting transit. The week's returns reflect Friday's close and do not capture the weekend's deterioration.
Large-cap growth was the week's domestic standout, gaining 6.7%, as the energy-driven relief in inflation expectations allowed a meaningful re-rating of longer-duration technology and growth assets. Year-to-date, large-cap growth has recovered to +0.8%, a striking improvement from the deeply negative levels of recent weeks. Value-oriented strategies continue to lead on a year-to-date basis: Russell 1000 Value is up +8.5% and Midcap Value has gained +10.9% through April 17, reflecting the sustained advantage of earnings quality and lower-multiple positioning throughout the volatile first quarter. Small-cap equities also produced a strong week, with the Russell 2000 advancing 5.6% and small-cap growth surging 7.5%. Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 is up +12.3%, the strongest return among U.S. domestic equity benchmarks, as smaller, domestically focused companies tend to be more insulated from global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risk than their large-cap counterparts.
International equities participated in the week's rally, adding to what has been a strong year for non-U.S. markets. The MSCI EAFE gained 2.2% for the week and now stands up +8.4% year-to-date, while Emerging Markets advanced 3.2% on the week and are up +14.2% year-to-date. The U.S. dollar declined modestly at −0.3% for the week, and its year-to-date gain has narrowed to +1.2%, reflecting the reduced safe-haven demand that accompanied Friday's Hormuz reopening — a dynamic that may partially reverse given the weekend's developments.
First-quarter 2026 earnings season officially commenced with reports from the major U.S. financial institutions, followed by a range of industrial, technology, and consumer companies during the week. The early results have been broadly constructive relative to revised expectations heading into the quarter, though management teams are generally cautious in their forward commentary, citing tariff uncertainty, softening consumer sentiment, and the lagged effects of 2025's interest rate environment on capital expenditures.
JPMorgan Chase reported first-quarter net income of $14.6 billion, or $4.98 per share, comfortably above consensus estimates. Revenue of $46.0 billion reflected strength in investment banking fees and net interest income. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon, in prepared remarks released alongside the report, delivered a notably measured message:
"The U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience, but we are navigating a period of genuine uncertainty around trade policy, geopolitical dynamics, and the durability of consumer spending. Our fortress balance sheet positions us to support clients and absorb volatility, but we are watching carefully and managing risk accordingly."
Jamie Dimon, Chairman & CEO, JPMorgan ChaseGoldman Sachs reported first-quarter earnings per share of $14.12, surpassing estimates by a meaningful margin, driven by a sharp recovery in equities trading revenues and an uptick in mergers and acquisitions advisory activity. Chief Executive David Solomon noted that while the pipeline of deal activity is encouraging, the pace of execution remains constrained by valuation uncertainty and financing costs:
"Our clients are engaged, and the strategic rationale for consolidation and repositioning across many sectors is clear. What we are seeing is disciplined patience on timing, as management teams want greater clarity on the macro backdrop before pulling the trigger on transformational transactions."
David Solomon, Chairman & CEO, Goldman SachsNetflix reported first-quarter revenue of $12.25 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with earnings per share well above consensus, yet shares fell nearly 10% on Friday. The selloff was driven primarily by second-quarter guidance that missed estimates, with operating margins projected to dip to 31.5% as content spending is front-loaded in the first half of the year. Investors had also anticipated a guidance raise following Netflix's late-March price increases, and the decision to hold the full-year outlook unchanged compounded the disappointment. The announcement that co-founder and chairman Reed Hastings will exit the board in June added to the negative sentiment.
United Airlines issued quarterly results that outpaced reduced expectations, with load factors remaining strong on international routes even as domestic leisure demand showed early signs of softening. Chief Executive Scott Kirby noted that fuel cost hedging strategies have partially insulated the carrier from the spike in crude oil prices over the past several weeks.
Across the broader earnings landscape, companies with significant exposure to imported goods, particularly in consumer discretionary and light manufacturing, are facing a common challenge: absorbing meaningful cost inflation from tariffs while managing price sensitivity among end consumers. Several executives noted that the true tariff impact on Q1 results was limited due to pre-tariff inventory builds in late 2025 and early 2026, suggesting that Q2 margins may offer a cleaner read on the earnings pressure ahead.
The March Consumer Price Index, released on April 14, showed headline inflation of 3.4% year-over-year and core inflation of 3.1%, both broadly in line with economist forecasts. The data confirmed that progress on disinflation has stalled somewhat in early 2026, with shelter costs and services inflation remaining persistent. Goods deflation, which had provided meaningful relief throughout 2024, appears to be fading as tariff-driven price pressures begin to work through the supply chain. Market participants noted that tariff-related inflation presents the Federal Reserve with a particularly difficult policy dilemma, as supply-shock price increases are generally not well-addressed by demand-cooling monetary policy.
Retail sales for March came in well above expectations, rising 1.4% month-over-month and suggesting that the American consumer, while showing increasing signs of caution in survey-based measures, continues to spend at a healthy pace in real activity data. The strength was broad-based, with notable gains in building materials, general merchandise, and non-store retailers. Economists noted, however, that some portion of the retail sales strength likely reflects pull-forward buying ahead of anticipated tariff-driven price increases, a dynamic that would suggest some payback in the months ahead.
Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 219,000 for the week ending April 12, remaining within the range consistent with a healthy labor market. Continuing claims edged slightly higher but remain at historically low levels. The labor market's resilience continues to be one of the primary pillars supporting consumer spending and, by extension, the broader economic expansion.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained a central geopolitical theme during the week of April 13–17. Tensions in and around the strait have been elevated in recent weeks, drawing sustained attention from energy markets and global supply chain planners.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between the Sultanate of Oman and Iran, serves as the transit point for roughly 20% of global oil trade and approximately 25% of global liquefied natural gas exports. Iran's naval and paramilitary forces have maintained a posture of active interdiction threat. The United States has deployed a naval blockade of Iran, with U.S. Central Command reporting more than 10,000 troops, a dozen warships, and over 100 aircraft committed to the operation. Allies including the United Kingdom and France have provided diplomatic support and expressed willingness to contribute to efforts to restore safe passage, though most NATO partners have stopped short of direct military participation in the strait.
"Freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is a bedrock principle of the international order. The United States will not permit any power to hold the global energy supply hostage. Our forces are postured, our allies are aligned, and our resolve is unambiguous."
Statement from the U.S. Department of Defense, April 15, 2026The situation deteriorated over the weekend of April 18–19. Iran reversed its Friday announcement and re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, stating the waterway would remain under strict Iranian control until the United States lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iranian gunboats opened fire on vessels attempting to transit, and the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. Pakistan, which has served as the primary intermediary throughout the conflict, is expected to host a second round of direct negotiations early this week, and Trump confirmed on Sunday that U.S. negotiators are heading to Islamabad. The ceasefire is due to expire within days, and both sides have characterized substantive gaps as remaining. U.N. Security Council deliberations have been complicated by Russian and Chinese opposition to any binding resolution, limiting the international community's ability to apply coordinated pressure.
From an investment perspective, the conflict has provided the primary catalyst for gold's continued year-to-date leadership and has reinforced the dollar's role as a safe-haven currency in periods of acute geopolitical stress. Energy sector equities have generally outperformed the broader market on a year-to-date basis, while airlines, shipping companies, and manufacturers with Middle Eastern supply chain exposure have faced targeted headwinds. We continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as the strategic picture evolves.
Gold remained one of the most consistent performers of 2026, with the SPDR Gold Shares ETF gaining 2.0% during the week and extending its year-to-date return to +12.5%, placing gold among the top-performing asset classes in our weekly summary. The metal is benefiting from a durable confluence of drivers: persistent global central bank accumulation, demand for assets insulated from tariff disruption and currency volatility, and a geopolitical backdrop that, even with the Hormuz ceasefire, continues to contain meaningful uncertainty. Spot gold prices remained near all-time highs around $4,879 per troy ounce.
Bitcoin rebounded 4.7% during the week, participating in the broader risk-on rally driven by the Hormuz de-escalation and earnings optimism. The digital asset remains down 24.6% year-to-date, continuing to reflect the difficult first quarter it experienced alongside broader risk asset volatility. The cryptocurrency market has shown increasing correlation to equity market sentiment during periods of stress. As with all volatile, speculative assets, clients should ensure that any cryptocurrency exposure is sized appropriately relative to their overall portfolio and risk tolerance.
The first quarter of 2026 and the early weeks of the second have served as a vivid reminder that markets rarely move in straight lines, and that portfolios constructed for resilience rather than momentum tend to navigate volatility more effectively. The simultaneous pressures of elevated tariffs, persistent inflation, a geopolitical conflict affecting the world's most critical maritime chokepoint, and a repricing of high-growth equities have created a challenging environment for investors who entered the year with concentrated exposures.
The strategic case for diversification across asset classes, geographies, and investment styles has been validated in real time. Through April 17, value-oriented domestic equities are among the top performers: Russell 1000 Value is up +8.5% and Midcap Value is up +10.9%. Small-cap equities have surged to +12.3% year-to-date, international developed markets are up +8.4%, and gold leads all major categories at +12.5%. Even large-cap growth has recovered to a modestly positive +0.8% year-to-date, and every fixed income category now shows a year-to-date gain. These figures reflect Friday's close. The weekend's reversal — Iran re-closing the strait, gunboat fire on commercial vessels, and a U.S. Navy seizure of an Iranian ship — is a pointed reminder that the conflict remains unresolved and that the market's enthusiasm may have moved ahead of the diplomatic reality. Clients should expect continued volatility as ceasefire negotiations in Islamabad progress toward their deadline.
At Vistamark, our planning tools, including VistaBuilder™ for long-range financial planning and VistaBalancer™ for disciplined portfolio rebalancing, are designed to help clients maintain appropriate asset allocations and avoid the behavioral pitfalls that often prove costly in periods of market stress. We encourage clients who have questions about their current positioning to reach out directly. Staying invested, maintaining discipline, and trusting the process of a well-constructed long-term plan are the most important things an investor can do in moments like this one.
We will continue to monitor earnings season, Federal Reserve communications, and the rapidly evolving situation in the Persian Gulf closely, and will provide updates as the ceasefire deadline and Islamabad negotiations develop.
