Global equity markets closed out a strong week, buoyed by positive earnings reports, renewed optimism around trade negotiations, and resilient economic data. This momentum came even as some signals of moderating growth and labor market weakness began to emerge. Here is a concise guide to the week’s pivotal market moves and what investors are watching as July draws to a close.
S&P 500: Climbed 0.4%, posting its fifth consecutive weekly record close at 6,388.64.
Nasdaq Composite: Gained 0.2%, finishing at 21,108.32 and notching another all-time high.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose 0.5%, ending just below its December 2024 peak.
Tech and AI leaders, including Nvidia (+4.5%) and Alphabet, were at the forefront of gains.
Tesla rebounded over 4% on news of its robotaxi progress.
Record earnings and positive momentum from the "Magnificent Seven" stocks fueled risk appetite, with the VIX (volatility index) dropping to its lowest point since February.
However, sector divergence was evident as Intel tumbled over 7% following weak results.
Europe: The MSCI EAFE (developed markets) slipped 1.4% for July, weighed down by softer manufacturing and a stronger euro, but remained up 17.8% YTD.
Asia/Emerging Markets: China’s MSCI index rose 1.7% for the week, and global emerging markets were up 2%. Sentiment was supported by trade optimism and stable monetary policy.
Treasury Market: Yields edged up, with the 10-year Treasury closing at 4.37%. Bond prices dipped as investors anticipate a sizable Treasury issuance and weigh Fed signals ahead of its July 30 meeting.
Fed Policy: The FOMC held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%. Fed leadership remains divided, with two governors dissenting toward immediate cuts amid growing labor market weakness and still-elevated inflation. Futures now price a 75% chance of a cut at the September meeting, spurred by the soft July jobs report.
Jobs: Nonfarm payrolls rose only 73,000 for July (well below consensus), with prior months revised sharply lower. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, reflecting increasing slack.
Inflation: June CPI remained at 2.7% YoY, with Core inflation at 2.9%. The PCE index rose 2.6% over the past year, with core prices advancing 2.8%.
GDP: Q2 consumer spending was up 1.4%, and GDP annualized at 1.3% for the first half of 2025.
Key watch areas for July 28 – August 1:
Tuesday, July 30: Federal Reserve FOMC policy decision.
Trade Negotiations: U.S. and trading partners race to finalize deals before President Trump’s August 1 deadline.
Corporate Reports: The final batch of Q2 earnings from major tech and industrial firms.
Macro Releases: Consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and international PMIs.
Investors will be closely monitoring whether the Fed signals an imminent rate cut, the resilience of the labor market, the evolving impacts of tariffs, and if equity momentum can carry into August.
For more information and personalized guidance, please feel free to reach out to Vistamark Investments LLC. You can contact us at 312-895-3001, visit our website at www.vistamarkllc.com, or send us an email to info@vistamarkllc.com.
