The uneasy peace between Washington and Tehran came apart this week, and yet the market barely broke stride. After Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump declared the ceasefire over and the United States answered with successive rounds of strikes, sending oil up roughly 5% on the week and West Texas Intermediate back to about $75 per barrel. Equities absorbed the news and kept climbing on the strength of the technology trade: the Nasdaq gained 1.7% and the S&P 500 returned 1.3%, a second straight weekly advance that leaves the index within roughly 40 points of its early-June record. The Dow slipped 0.5% and small caps eased 0.6%. The week also carried two milestones for the capital markets, as South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion in the largest U.S. listing ever by a foreign company and the second-quarter earnings season unofficially opened with PepsiCo, Levi Strauss, and Delta Air Lines. By Saturday, July 11, diplomacy was stirring again, with Iran's foreign minister in Oman to discuss safe passage through the strait.
Geopolitical Watch
The Ceasefire Collapses: Strikes Return to the Strait
The 60-day framework signed at Versailles on June 17 effectively unraveled this week. Early in the week, Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump, speaking from the NATO summit, declared the ceasefire over and called further negotiation a waste of time. The United States responded with successive rounds of strikes: on Wednesday night U.S. Central Command reported hitting roughly 80 Iranian military targets, including more than 60 fast boats belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, followed by additional strikes Thursday aimed at degrading Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping. Iran answered by firing ballistic missiles at a base in Jordan that hosts U.S. forces, most of which were intercepted.
The energy market repriced the conflict immediately. West Texas Intermediate climbed from about $69 per barrel on Monday to roughly $75 by midweek, and Brent moved from about $72 to $79, leaving crude up roughly 5% for the week and lifting the energy sector more than 3%. Commercial traffic through the strait fell sharply after the attacks, with roughly 15 vessels transiting per day late in the week against a pre-war average near 110. The United States also revoked an Iranian oil sanctions waiver, and at a United Nations Security Council session on Friday, U.S. officials said dialogue remains possible but that Washington cannot negotiate while ships are being attacked.
The weekend brought two developments pulling in opposite directions. Iran buried Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Friday following six days of funeral ceremonies across Iran and Iraq, and his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, used his first message afterward to pledge revenge, keeping tensions elevated. At the same time, on Saturday, July 11, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Muscat, where he and his Omani counterpart discussed mechanisms for the safe passage of ships through the strait, a sign that the diplomatic channel, with Oman and Pakistan mediating, has not closed. U.S. officials have said talks toward the final deal cannot proceed to the nuclear file until tanker traffic moves freely.
WTI Crude
~$75
Up roughly 5% on the week
US Targets Struck
~80
Including 60+ IRGC boats
Hormuz Transits
~15/day
Versus ~110 pre-war
Talks Resume
Muscat
Araghchi in Oman July 11
Capital Markets
A Record Foreign Listing and the Start of Earnings Season
On Friday, SK Hynix, the South Korean memory chipmaker at the center of the artificial intelligence build-out, completed the largest U.S. listing ever by a foreign company. The company's American depositary receipts priced at $149, raising $26.5 billion, and opened on the Nasdaq at $170 before finishing the session up roughly 13%. The offering extends the run of landmark listings that began with SpaceX in June and underscores how much investor appetite remains for the AI supply chain, even as some traders noted the new shares may compete for capital with U.S. memory names such as Micron.
The second-quarter earnings season also opened quietly this week. PepsiCo reported net revenue growth of 6.4% with organic growth of 2.4%, posted a 4% increase in core earnings per share, and affirmed its full-year guidance, an encouraging early read on the consumer. Levi Strauss and Delta Air Lines rounded out the opening slate, with Delta's Friday report serving as the traditional kickoff for the airlines. Elsewhere, Meta Platforms surged 15% for its best week since early 2024 on optimism about its artificial intelligence compute position, the strongest performer among the megacaps. The main event arrives next week, when the major banks begin reporting on Tuesday.
Market Performance
Week Ended July 10, 2026: Index Summary
The major indexes finished mixed, with leadership concentrated in technology. A late-week rebound in semiconductor and AI-related shares carried the Nasdaq to a 1.7% gain and the S&P 500 to a 1.3% total return, the index's second straight weekly gain since the late-June inflation selloff, while the Dow fell 0.5% and the Russell 2000 eased 0.6%. The style split was stark: large-cap growth rose 2.2% while large-cap value finished flat, and mid caps, small caps, and real estate all edged lower. International markets lagged as the dollar firmed, with developed markets down 1.4% and emerging markets down 1.7%. The bond market told a more cautious story: the 10-year Treasury yield rose about nine basis points to 4.57%, its highest since late May, pushing long-term Treasuries down 1.3% and the broad Aggregate index lower on the week. The tables below detail the week.
Fixed Income & AlternativesTotal Return
| Index | Last Week | YTD 2026 |
|---|
| Bloomberg US Treasury Bills 1-3 Month | +0.1% | +1.9% |
| Bloomberg US Government/Credit 1-3 Year | 0.0% | +0.8% |
| Bloomberg US Aggregate | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| Bloomberg Municipal 1-15 Year | -0.2% | +1.1% |
| Bloomberg Municipal Bond High Yield | -0.3% | +3.7% |
| Bloomberg US TIPS (Series-L) | -0.1% | +0.9% |
| Bloomberg Global Aggregate | -0.4% | -0.7% |
| Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield | 0.0% | +2.1% |
| ICE US Treasury 20+ Year | -1.3% | -0.9% |
| S&P/TSX North American Preferred Stock | +0.2% | +4.7% |
| SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) | -0.3% | -4.9% |
| Invesco DB US Dollar Index (UUP) | +0.2% | +5.0% |
| Bitcoin Price | +2.8% | -29.1% |
Global EquityTotal Return
| Index | Last Week | YTD 2026 |
|---|
| MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return | +0.1% | +12.2% |
| MSCI ACWI Net Total Return | +0.3% | +11.9% |
| Russell 3000 Total Return | +1.0% | +11.6% |
| S&P 500 Total Return | +1.3% | +11.4% |
| Russell 1000 Value Total Return | 0.0% | +18.3% |
| Russell 1000 Growth Total Return | +2.2% | +5.1% |
| Russell Midcap Total Return | -0.3% | +14.9% |
| Russell Midcap Value Total Return | -0.3% | +18.2% |
| Russell Midcap Growth Total Return | -0.3% | +4.4% |
| Russell 2000 Total Return | -0.6% | +20.7% |
| Russell 2000 Value Total Return | -0.6% | +22.3% |
| Russell 2000 Growth Total Return | -0.6% | +19.3% |
| MSCI EAFE Net Total Return | -1.4% | +9.8% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets Net Total Return | -1.7% | +21.7% |
| S&P 1500 Real Estate (Sector) | -0.6% | +13.1% |
Bitcoin year-to-date return calculated from the January 1, 2026 reference price of $88,722.
Economic Backdrop
A Cooling Labor Market Meets a Hawkish Fed
The economic picture grew more complicated. The June employment report, released July 3, showed just 57,000 jobs added against expectations near 115,000, a sharp deceleration from May's outsized gain and the clearest sign yet that the labor market is cooling. Days later, the minutes of the June Fed meeting, Chairman Kevin Warsh's first, confirmed the committee's hawkish tilt, with nine of eighteen officials still projecting at least one rate increase this year. The tension between softening employment and elevated inflation now defines the policy debate, and the renewed oil spike only sharpens it.
The higher-frequency data stayed firm. Initial jobless claims fell to 215,000, below estimates, suggesting layoffs remain contained even as hiring slows. Existing home sales for June unexpectedly slipped to an annualized 4.09 million units as elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on housing. With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since late May and the two-year above 4.2%, the bond market is bracing for next week's June inflation readings, the first since the Fed signaled its hike bias.
Looking Ahead
Key Events: Week of July 13, 2026
The week ahead is the most consequential of the summer so far: June inflation data, the formal start of bank earnings, and the new Fed chairman's first appearance before Congress all land within days of each other, with the Iran situation running underneath all of it.
Economic CalendarWeek of July 13 - July 17, 2026
June CPI and Big Bank Earnings
The June Consumer Price Index is the first major inflation reading since the Fed signaled a possible hike; May ran at 4.2% year-over-year. The same day, JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo open the heart of earnings season, offering a read on credit quality and the consumer.
Highest Impact
Chairman Warsh Testifies Before Congress
The Fed delivered its monetary policy report to Congress on Friday, and Chairman Warsh's semiannual testimony follows next week. Markets will parse how he weighs the soft June jobs report against inflation still above 4% and the renewed energy shock.
Highest Impact
June PPI and Retail Sales
Producer prices and June retail sales arrive midweek. Retail sales have held up despite weak sentiment; a soft print alongside the jobs miss would strengthen the case that the economy is slowing faster than the Fed's projections assume.
Moderate Impact
Iran Diplomacy and the Strait
Following Saturday's talks in Muscat on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, markets will watch whether shipping traffic recovers and whether the mediated channel through Oman and Pakistan can restore the framework. Any further escalation would extend the energy risk premium.
Ongoing Watch
Weekly Summary
What It All Means for Investors
The week captured the market's central tension in miniature. A collapsing ceasefire and a 5% oil spike would once have driven a broad retreat; instead, the technology trade absorbed the shock and pushed the S&P 500 back within reach of its record, while a record-setting $26.5 billion foreign listing showed how much capital is still chasing the AI build-out. Beneath the surface, the picture is less serene: yields rose all week, the June jobs report showed hiring slowing sharply, and inflation remains above 4% with a fresh energy shock now feeding into it. The Fed's hawkish posture and a cooling labor market are on a collision course, and next week's inflation data, bank earnings, and Chairman Warsh's testimony will determine which force sets the market's tone.
For Vistamark clients, the lesson is consistency. Leadership this week rotated back toward growth after value's strong run, the reverse of late June, and the swings between those regimes are precisely why we do not chase them. A portfolio built with VistaBuilder™, diversified across value, growth, small caps, international equity, and fixed income, participates in whichever segment leads without depending on any single one. VistaBalancer™ keeps each client's allocation aligned with their long-term objectives as the Fed, the energy market, and earnings season unfold.
