Market Recap & Outlook: Your Weekly Market Compass – April 17, 2026

The week of April 13–17 delivered broadly strong returns across most asset classes, driven primarily by Friday's Hormuz reopening announcement. The S&P 500 gained 4.5% on the week and now stands up 4.5% year-to-date, with small-cap and mid-cap equities among the standout performers. Fixed income recovered alongside equities, gold extended its year-to-date lead to +12.5%, and Bitcoin rebounded +4.7% on the week, narrowing its year-to-date loss to roughly −15%. Readers should note that Iran re-closed the strait on Saturday April 18 and tensions have escalated further into Sunday, which may affect the opening of markets this week.

Fixed income delivered a broadly positive week, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate gaining 0.6% as the 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.24% by Friday's close, releasing some of the pressure that had built up in rates throughout the first quarter as energy-driven inflation fears kept yields elevated. Treasury Bills continue to provide consistent front-end yield support and remain among the better-performing fixed income categories on a year-to-date basis at +1.1%.

Long-duration Treasuries were the standout performer within fixed income, with the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Index gaining 0.7% for the week as the rally in longer rates reinforced the move down in yields. Year-to-date, the long end is now up +0.9%, a meaningful improvement from the negative territory of recent weeks. TIPS also posted a solid week at +0.4%, as inflation expectations remained anchored despite the week's sharp drop in oil prices. Global bonds outperformed the broader domestic aggregate, gaining 0.9% on the week compared to 0.6% for the Bloomberg US Aggregate, aided by the modest weakening of the U.S. dollar.

High yield corporate bonds gained 0.7% on the week as credit spreads tightened alongside the broader equity rally, bringing the year-to-date return to +1.5%. Municipal High Yield added 0.4% on the week and is now up +2.3% year-to-date. Preferred stocks were the week's fixed income outperformer at +1.0%, reflecting sensitivity to the equity risk-on tone, and now stand at +2.1% year-to-date. The Federal Reserve's latest communications reinforced the consensus view that the policy rate path will remain data-dependent throughout 2026, with regional Fed presidents emphasizing the need for sustained labor market durability and anchored inflation expectations before any further easing is considered.

U.S. equity markets rallied sharply during the week of April 13–17, with Friday's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened acting as the primary catalyst. The prospect of easing energy costs and reduced inflation risk drove broad-based gains, producing some of the strongest weekly index returns in recent memory. The S&P 500 gained 4.5% on a total return basis and closed at an all-time high. It is worth noting, however, that Iran reversed the reopening announcement the following morning, re-closing the strait and firing on vessels attempting transit. The week's returns reflect Friday's close and do not capture the weekend's deterioration.

Large-cap growth was the week's domestic standout, gaining 6.7%, as the energy-driven relief in inflation expectations allowed a meaningful re-rating of longer-duration technology and growth assets. Year-to-date, large-cap growth has recovered to +0.8%, a striking improvement from the deeply negative levels of recent weeks. Value-oriented strategies continue to lead on a year-to-date basis: Russell 1000 Value is up +8.5% and Midcap Value has gained +10.9% through April 17, reflecting the sustained advantage of earnings quality and lower-multiple positioning throughout the volatile first quarter. Small-cap equities also produced a strong week, with the Russell 2000 advancing 5.6% and small-cap growth surging 7.5%. Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 is up +12.3%, the strongest return among U.S. domestic equity benchmarks, as smaller, domestically focused companies tend to be more insulated from global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risk than their large-cap counterparts.

International equities participated in the week's rally, adding to what has been a strong year for non-U.S. markets. The MSCI EAFE gained 2.2% for the week and now stands up +8.4% year-to-date, while Emerging Markets advanced 3.2% on the week and are up +14.2% year-to-date. The U.S. dollar declined modestly at −0.3% for the week, and its year-to-date gain has narrowed to +1.2%, reflecting the reduced safe-haven demand that accompanied Friday's Hormuz reopening — a dynamic that may partially reverse given the weekend's developments.

First-quarter 2026 earnings season officially commenced with reports from the major U.S. financial institutions, followed by a range of industrial, technology, and consumer companies during the week. The early results have been broadly constructive relative to revised expectations heading into the quarter, though management teams are generally cautious in their forward commentary, citing tariff uncertainty, softening consumer sentiment, and the lagged effects of 2025's interest rate environment on capital expenditures.

JPMorgan Chase reported first-quarter net income of $14.6 billion, or $4.98 per share, comfortably above consensus estimates. Revenue of $46.0 billion reflected strength in investment banking fees and net interest income. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon, in prepared remarks released alongside the report, delivered a notably measured message:

Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter earnings per share of $14.12, surpassing estimates by a meaningful margin, driven by a sharp recovery in equities trading revenues and an uptick in mergers and acquisitions advisory activity. Chief Executive David Solomon noted that while the pipeline of deal activity is encouraging, the pace of execution remains constrained by valuation uncertainty and financing costs:

Netflix reported first-quarter revenue of $12.25 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with earnings per share well above consensus, yet shares fell nearly 10% on Friday. The selloff was driven primarily by second-quarter guidance that missed estimates, with operating margins projected to dip to 31.5% as content spending is front-loaded in the first half of the year. Investors had also anticipated a guidance raise following Netflix's late-March price increases, and the decision to hold the full-year outlook unchanged compounded the disappointment. The announcement that co-founder and chairman Reed Hastings will exit the board in June added to the negative sentiment.

United Airlines issued quarterly results that outpaced reduced expectations, with load factors remaining strong on international routes even as domestic leisure demand showed early signs of softening. Chief Executive Scott Kirby noted that fuel cost hedging strategies have partially insulated the carrier from the spike in crude oil prices over the past several weeks.

Across the broader earnings landscape, companies with significant exposure to imported goods, particularly in consumer discretionary and light manufacturing, are facing a common challenge: absorbing meaningful cost inflation from tariffs while managing price sensitivity among end consumers. Several executives noted that the true tariff impact on Q1 results was limited due to pre-tariff inventory builds in late 2025 and early 2026, suggesting that Q2 margins may offer a cleaner read on the earnings pressure ahead.

The March Consumer Price Index, released on April 14, showed headline inflation of 3.4% year-over-year and core inflation of 3.1%, both broadly in line with economist forecasts. The data confirmed that progress on disinflation has stalled somewhat in early 2026, with shelter costs and services inflation remaining persistent. Goods deflation, which had provided meaningful relief throughout 2024, appears to be fading as tariff-driven price pressures begin to work through the supply chain. Market participants noted that tariff-related inflation presents the Federal Reserve with a particularly difficult policy dilemma, as supply-shock price increases are generally not well-addressed by demand-cooling monetary policy.

Retail sales for March came in well above expectations, rising 1.4% month-over-month and suggesting that the American consumer, while showing increasing signs of caution in survey-based measures, continues to spend at a healthy pace in real activity data. The strength was broad-based, with notable gains in building materials, general merchandise, and non-store retailers. Economists noted, however, that some portion of the retail sales strength likely reflects pull-forward buying ahead of anticipated tariff-driven price increases, a dynamic that would suggest some payback in the months ahead.

Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 219,000 for the week ending April 12, remaining within the range consistent with a healthy labor market. Continuing claims edged slightly higher but remain at historically low levels. The labor market's resilience continues to be one of the primary pillars supporting consumer spending and, by extension, the broader economic expansion.

Gold remained one of the most consistent performers of 2026, with the SPDR Gold Shares ETF gaining 2.0% during the week and extending its year-to-date return to +12.5%, placing gold among the top-performing asset classes in our weekly summary. The metal is benefiting from a durable confluence of drivers: persistent global central bank accumulation, demand for assets insulated from tariff disruption and currency volatility, and a geopolitical backdrop that, even with the Hormuz ceasefire, continues to contain meaningful uncertainty. Spot gold prices remained near all-time highs around $4,879 per troy ounce.

Bitcoin rebounded 4.7% during the week to close at $75,149, participating in the broader risk-on rally driven by the Hormuz de-escalation and earnings optimism. Following two consecutive weeks of solid gains, Bitcoin has narrowed its year-to-date loss to approximately −15.0% from a March 31 low near −24.6%, though the asset remains the weakest major category in our weekly summary. The cryptocurrency market has shown increasing correlation to equity market sentiment during periods of stress. As with all volatile, speculative assets, clients should ensure that any cryptocurrency exposure is sized appropriately relative to their overall portfolio and risk tolerance.