Category Archives: Market Commentary

SITUATION UPDATE: DAY 22

Operation Epic Fury is now three weeks old. Over 3,000 vessels sit immobilized across the Middle East—the largest disruption to global shipping since World War II. The International Maritime Organization convened an emergency session this week, urging nations to devise strategies to evacuate stranded vessels—a measure the body has never before taken in peacetime. U.S. Central Command reports over 8,000 targets struck and more than 130 Iranian naval vessels destroyed. The USS Abraham Lincoln remains in the Arabian Sea, the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Red Sea. An additional 2,200 Marines and three more warships were ordered to the region on March 20, with more than 50,000 U.S. troops now stationed across the theater. Iran has launched 70 waves of strikes and shows no sign of relenting—widening attacks this week to target energy infrastructure across six Gulf states for the first time.

In this update, we cover the oil risk premium, what $100+ oil means for consumers and the Fed, how the conflict escalated this past week with Iran widening attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, world leaders and allies weighing in on Strait of Hormuz security, three resolution scenarios, what credit spreads and the 200-day moving average are signaling, and what macroeconomic data to watch in the week ahead.

SITUATION UPDATE: DAY 15

Operation Epic Fury is now two weeks old. U.S. Central Command reports nearly 2,000 targets struck and more than 20 Iranian naval vessels destroyed — heightening fears of retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s traded oil passes. The USS Abraham Lincoln remains in the Arabian Sea, the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Red Sea, and a third carrier — USS George H.W. Bush — completed combat certification on March 12. An additional 2,500 Marines and the USS Tripoli were ordered to the region this past Friday, with more than 200 U.S. aircraft operating in theater.

In this update, we cover the oil risk premium and what it means for markets, how $100 oil moves through the economy, what history tells us about 1973 and why a repeat is unlikely, three resolution scenarios, and what credit spreads are signaling.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a joint air and naval campaign against Iran’s military, Revolutionary Guard, and nuclear sites.

In the opening hours, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials were killed.

Now in its seventh day, U.S. Central Command reports thousands of targets destroyed, including two dozen naval vessels and hundreds of ballistic missiles. More than 50,000 American troops, 200 fighter aircraft, and two carrier groups are engaged.

Before the escalation, WTI crude traded near $67 and Brent around $72.50. During the first week, the S&P 500 fell 2% and the Dow 3% as investors weighed the Hormuz blockade and rising energy risks.

As of March 9, WTI trades at $103.10 and Brent at $107.75, up roughly 54% and 49% since the operation began. Despite sharp swings, trading remains orderly as markets adjust to the surge from pre-conflict levels.

Your Weekly Market Compass – February 27, 2026

Markets spent the week ending February 27 walking a narrow ridge between resilient growth and rising geopolitical risk, with U.S. and global equities modestly weaker while earlier‑year gains stayed intact. As of Friday’s close, large‑cap U.S. stocks remained positive year‑to‑date on a total‑return basis, but most of the action for the week was about repricing risk rather than adding to gains. The weekend exchange of attacks involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has since pushed oil and volatility higher into Monday’s open, underscoring how geopolitical “shocks” can arrive abruptly even when economic data appear steady. Early trading on March 2 shows a familiar flight‑to‑quality pattern—Treasury yields a bit lower, energy and defense shares firmer, and the VIX edging up from its 19.9 close on Friday—as investors reassess near‑term risk without abandoning their 2026 roadmap.

A Week Defined by Extremes

The week ending February 6, 2026, was defined by a dramatic eleventh-hour rescue of the headline averages. A powerful Friday rebound—marking the S&P 500’s best single-day performance since May—successfully pulled the index back from the brink of a deep weekly loss and helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average make history by closing above 50,000 for the first time.
Yet these headline recoveries could not entirely disguise a punishing week for technology, where software names saw over a trillion dollars in market value evaporate amid the most significant volatility since the early 2025 “DeepSeek” scare. With labor signals flashing warning signs not seen since 2020, the market is navigating a growing tension between long-term AI optimism and the staggering real-world cost of infrastructure.

U.S. Stocks: S&P 500 Breaking Through 7,000—Then Pullback on Policy Uncertainty

The week ending January 30, 2026 delivered a milestone and a reality check in equal measure. Major indices pushed to record highs early in the week before giving back gains as President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair created a wave of uncertainty across financial markets.

Market Recap & Outlook: Your Weekly Market Compass – January 23, 2026 What happened this week, and what it means for your portfolio as earnings season approaches and market momentum remains mixed.

U.S. Stocks: Modest Gains Amid Approaching Earnings Season The week ending January 23, 2026 delivered a mixed performance across major indices as investors weighed resilient economic data against lingering inflation concerns and the upcoming start of earnings season. Equities showed modest advances in some areas, with the S&P 500 nearing recent highs, though gains were tempered by a softer finish on Friday.

Small Caps Extend Historic Streak, But Major Indices Stumble on Fed Chair Uncertainty

The Second Full Trading Week of 2026: Rotation Accelerates Amid Leadership Questions

If the first week of 2026 was a tentative probe, the second week was a declaration. The week ending January 16, 2026, was defined by three competing narratives: the continuation of a historic small-cap outperformance streak, consolidation in major indices, and escalating uncertainty around Federal Reserve leadership that sent Treasury yields to four-month highs.

The Russell 2000 Index achieved an extraordinary milestone: 11 consecutive trading days of outperforming the S&P 500, the longest such streak since June 2008. This isn’t noise—it’s a structural rotation from mega-cap concentration into broader market participation that reflects genuine shifts in Fed policy expectations and valuation mean reversion.

After a Historic 2025, Markets Hit the Pause Button—But the Bull Case Remains Intact. The First Full Trading Week of 2026: A Reality Check for the Bulls.

The honeymoon didn’t last long. After capping 2025 with one of the strongest calendar-year performances in decades, U.S. equities took a modest step back this week as investors grappled with a timeless market question: How much good news is already priced in?

The week ending January 9, 2026 brought a healthy dose of consolidation—profit-taking in mega-cap technology, rotation into overlooked sectors, and a measured reassessment of rate-cut timing. The good news? Despite the pullback, the fundamental backdrop that powered 2025’s rally remains remarkably intact. Inflation is easing, the Federal Reserve is pivoting toward accommodation, and the economy is slowing gracefully rather than seizing up. This is precisely the “soft landing” script that equity markets crave.